Goldman screens for greatest and worst shares for tightening monetary situations


3d arrows and percent sign on a background of a building under construction and US banknotes. Concept of growth of financial and mortgage rates, profits in construction industry.

Lari Bat/iStock through Getty Photographs

Monetary situations are at present near the simplest on file, however tightening is on its means.

Cash markets are pricing 100% of a quarter-point charge hike in March and a big change of a half-point rise. The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) (NASDAQ:QQQ) had had its worst January ever.

The Goldman Sachs Monetary Situations Index has 5 parts:

  1. The ten-year Treasury yield (NYSEARCA:TBT) (NASDAQ:TLT), 45.1% weighting
  2. Company credit score spreads (iBoxx Home Non-Financials BBB 15Y+ over 10-year), 39.6%
  3. The Goldman Sachs broad trade-weighted index, 6%
  4. The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) scaled by 10-year shifting common of earnings, 4.9%
  5. The midpoint of goal fed funds, 4.4%.

Because the FCI tightens defensive shares and people with high quality components outperform, Goldman strategist David Kostin and crew say.

They screened the Russell 3000 (NYSEARCA:IWV) for shares with robust steadiness sheets, excessive margins and above-average free money move yield:

  1. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), FCF yield 17%
  2. Coterra Vitality (NYSE:CTRA), 16%
  3. Regeneron Pharma (NASDAQ:REGN), 13%
  4. Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), 9%
  5. Skywords Options (NASDAQ:SWKS), 8%
  6. United Therapeutics (NASDAQ:UTHR), 7%
  7. Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD), 7%
  8. MKS Devices (NASDAQ:MKSI), 7%
  9. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), 6%
  10. SEI Investments (NASDAQ:SEIC), 6%
  11. Vertex Pharma (NASDAQ:VRTX), 6%

In addition they screened on the opposite finish for shares with a excessive charge of FCF burn relative to money on the steadiness sheet:

  1. Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), implied finish 2022 money -$4.236B
  2. SunRun (NASDAQ:RUN), -$1.243B
  3. Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO), -$706M
  4. PureCycle Applied sciences (NASDAQ:PCT), -$396M
  5. PRA Group (NASDAQ:PRAA), -$374M
  6. ViaSat (NASDAQ:VSAT), -$360M
  7. GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS), -$231M
  8. Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT), -$189M
  9. Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT), -$181M
  10. Caravana (NYSE:CVNA), -$176M

This strategist says the Fed will want greater than charge hikes to sort out inflation.


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