AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL
- The Australian Greenback has rallied despite the fact that the RBA baulked at charge hikes
- Commodities proceed greater however the US Greenback asserts dominance for AUD
- The Aussie seems to be on the whim of exterior components. The place to for AUD/USD?
The Australian Greenback whipsawed this week because the RBA financial coverage resolution was dissected, after which ignored. The market then returned to specializing in the US Greenback fairly than home components.
The RBA abolished the asset buying program at their assembly on Tuesday however left the money charge unchanged at 0.10%. Technically, the RBA have tightened, quantitatively (QT).
A notable distinction within the publish assembly assertion was the absence of charge hike steerage.
Beforehand they’d mentioned that they didn’t see charges rising till 2024 or “presumably” in 2023. The market had dismissed this and was pricing in charge hikes for this 12 months.
Then on Wednesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe didn’t rule out a 10-basis level hike by the top of the 12 months.
The financial institution mentioned that for charges to rise, underlying inflation would must be sustainably inside the mandated 2-3% goal vary. Their most well-liked value development measure – the so-called ‘trimmed imply’ – is at present rising at an annual charge of two.6% and has had two quarters above 2%.
In its Assertion on Financial Coverage launched on Friday, the RBA mentioned that it sees headline inflation operating at 3.75% in June and expects underlying value development to hit 3.25% at the moment.
The chart beneath is from the RBA and illustrates their present underlying inflation reads.
This reluctance to boost charges is at odds with the Federal Reserve within the US, the place they’ve explicitly said that the lift-off for charges is more likely to occur at their subsequent assembly in March. The Fed’s asset buy program can even finish in March after a interval of gradual tapering that started within the fourth quarter of final 12 months.
After the Fed’s assembly the US Greenback rallied, which noticed AUD/USD go decrease and sneak beneath the November 2020 low of 0.6991.
Nonetheless, over the course of the final week, quite a lot of Fed audio system have come out and hosed down the markets’ expectations for 5 25bps charge hikes this 12 months. This has seen AUD/USD rally once more.
Not too long ago, the Financial institution of Canada (BOC), the Financial institution of England (BOE) and the European Central Financial institution (ECB) have all turn out to be extra hawkish than they have been beforehand. The Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the BOE have already began elevating charges.
One might argue that greater commodity costs are as soon as once more underpinning the Aussie. However when AUD/USD is overlaid with the US Greenback index (DXY), iron ore and crude oil, as a proxy for power commodity exports, it’s extra obvious that it’s the USD that’s driving AUD/USD.
With the central financial institution motion out of the way in which for now, the main target can be on US inflation figures due Thursday. Apart from that, the remainder of the information is principally second tier and may be considered right here.
Any additional steerage from Fed audio system on US charges is one thing to look out for.
AUD/USD, IRON ORE (SGX), CRUDE OIL (WTI) AND US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
— Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the feedback part beneath or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter