Financial calendar for the week 14.02.2022 – 20.02.2022

Date:


Evaluation of the primary occasions of the Foreign exchange financial calendar for the subsequent buying and selling week (14.02.2022 – 20.02.2022)

The US greenback ended final week within the constructive territory. In accordance with the US Division of Labor, the Client Value Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in January and by 7.5% in annual phrases. The info have been higher than forecasts that had anticipated CPI to rise 7.2% YoY after rising 7.0% in December. That is the eighth month in a row that the annual inflation charge has exceeded 5%, practically 4 occasions the Fed’s goal of two%.

The brand new information on inflation within the US, which can have an effect on the tempo and scope of the Fed’s rate of interest hike, considerably elevated the uncertainty out there. Together with the acceleration of inflation, traders’ concern is rising that the Fed could not be capable of handle the speed of inflation, and this threatens hyperinflation, which might have a catastrophic impact on each the greenback and the prospects for all the American financial system.

Now, many economists are suggesting that the Fed will act extra aggressively, and the March charge hike may very well be +0.50% and even +0.75%.

Thus, the divergence of the curves reflecting the dynamics of the financial insurance policies of the Fed and different main world central banks will improve over time. And this is likely one of the most vital elements in favor of additional strengthening of the USD, if, after all, the Fed manages to shortly handle the accelerating inflation on account of these actions.

Subsequent week, market individuals will take note of the publication of vital macro statistics from Japan, the US, the UK, Canada, China, Australia, and the Eurozone.

*through the coming week, new occasions could also be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled occasions could also be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, February 14

23:50 JPY Japan GDP for the 4th quarter of 2021 (ultimate estimate)

GDP is taken into account an indicator of the final state of a rustic’s financial system that assesses the speed of its development or decline. The report on gross home product revealed by the Cupboard of Ministers of Japan expresses in financial phrases the whole worth of all ultimate items and providers produced by Japan over a sure time frame. An upward pattern in GDP is taken into account constructive for the nationwide foreign money (yen), whereas a low result’s thought-about unfavorable (or bearish).

Within the earlier third quarter, the nation’s GDP decreased by -0.9% (-3.6% in annual phrases) after rising within the 2nd quarter by +0.5% (+1.5% in annual phrases) and falling within the 1st quarter by -1.0% (-3.7% in annual phrases).

The info level to the uneven restoration of the Japanese financial system after its collapse as a result of coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Nonetheless, the forecast implies that within the 4th quarter of 2021, Japan’s GDP grew by +1.4% (+5.8% in annual phrases), which is a constructive issue, particularly for the Japanese inventory market. Higher-than-expected information is probably going to assist the Japanese inventory market rise.

Tuesday, February 15

00:30 AUD Minutes of the February assembly of the RB of Australia

This doc is revealed two weeks after the assembly and the choice on the rate of interest. If the RBA is constructive concerning the state of the labor market within the nation, the GDP development charge, and in addition reveals a hawkish perspective in direction of the inflationary forecast within the financial system, the markets regard this as a better chance of a charge hike on the subsequent assembly, which is a constructive issue for the AUD. The financial institution’s smooth rhetoric relating to, initially, inflation places stress on the AUD.

Through the current (February) assembly, the RBA saved its key rate of interest at 0.10%, however radically revised its forecasts, acknowledging that the financial system is performing significantly better than the financial institution anticipated. On the similar time, the RBA doesn’t intend to lift rates of interest till inflation stabilizes throughout the goal vary of two%-3%. The financial institution additionally introduced the top of its quantitative easing program, signaling that the top of presidency bond purchases doesn’t imply that rates of interest might be raised instantly.

In accordance with the top of the RBA Philip Lowe, there are nonetheless “no critical arguments in favor of tightening financial coverage within the quick time period.” In his opinion, “the rise in rates of interest will take a while.”

Nonetheless, if the revealed minutes comprise sudden info relating to RBA financial coverage points, the volatility in AUD quotes will improve.

07:00 GBP Report on the common wages of the British for the final 3 months. Unemployment charge

Each month, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) publishes a report on common earnings, together with the interval for the final 3 months, with and with out bonuses.

This report is a key short-term indicator of the dynamics of wages within the UK. Wages development is a constructive issue for the GBP, whereas the low worth of the indicator is unfavorable. Forecast: The February report means that the common wages with bonuses rose once more within the final calculated 3 months (October-December) after rising by +4.2%, +4.9%, +5.8%, +7.2%, +8.3%, +8.8%, +7.3%, +5.6%, +4.0%, +4.5%, +4.8%, +4.7%, + 3.7%, +2.8%, +1.3%, +0.1% in earlier durations; wages with out bonuses additionally elevated after the expansion of +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.9%, +6.0%, +6.8%, +7.4%, +6.6%, + 5.6%, +4.6%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.6%, +2.8%, +1.9%, +0.9%, +0.2% in earlier durations. Thus, the information factors to the continued development of wages, which is a constructive issue for the pound. If the information seems to be higher than the forecast and / or earlier values, the pound is more likely to strengthen within the overseas alternate market. Knowledge worse than forecast/earlier values ​​could have a unfavorable affect on the pound.

Additionally right now, information on unemployment within the UK are revealed. It’s anticipated that for 3 months from October to December, unemployment was on the degree of 4.1% (towards 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.8%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.9% in earlier durations).

Since 2012, the UK unemployment charge has steadily declined (from 8.0% in September 2012). This can be a constructive issue for the pound, the rise in unemployment is a unfavorable issue.

If the information from the UK labor market seems to be worse than the forecast and / or the earlier worth, the pound might be underneath stress.

In any case, on the time of publication of knowledge from the British labor market, a rise in volatility within the pound quotes and on the London Inventory Trade is predicted.

10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter (second estimate)

GDP is taken into account an indicator of the general well being of the financial system. The rising pattern of the GDP indicator is taken into account constructive for the EUR; a low end result weakens the EUR.

Just lately, macro information from the Eurozone have been indicating a gradual restoration within the development charge of the European financial system after a pointy drop in early 2020.

Thus, in keeping with the forecast of economists, by the primary evaluation, GDP development within the Eurozone is predicted to have grown within the 4th quarter of 2021 by +0.3% (+4.6% in annual phrases) after a rise of +2.2% (+3.9 % YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+14.3% YoY) in Q2 and a fall of -0.3% (-1.3% YoY) in Q1 2021, down -0.7% (-4.9% YoY) in This autumn 2020, up +12.5% ​​(down -4.3% YoY ) in Q3, falling by -11.8% (-14.7% YoY) in Q2 and falling by -3.6% (-3.1% YoY) in Q1 of 2020.

If the information seems to be weaker than the forecast and / or earlier values, the euro could decline. Higher-than-expected information could strengthen the euro within the quick time period, though the total restoration of the European financial system, even to pre-crisis ranges, remains to be far-off.

Wednesday, February 16

01:30 CNY Client Value Index (CPI)

The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics of China will current common month-to-month information reflecting the dynamics of shopper costs in China. Rising shopper costs may set off an acceleration in inflation, which may power the Folks’s Financial institution of China to take measures aimed toward tightening fiscal coverage. Strengthening development in shopper inflation could trigger appreciation of the yuan, a low end result will put stress on the yuan.

The Chinese language financial system, in keeping with varied estimates, is already the biggest on this planet, pushing the US financial system to second place. Due to this fact, the publication of vital macroeconomic indicators of this nation has a big affect on world monetary markets, totally on the positions of the yuan, different Asian currencies, the greenback, commodity currencies, in addition to Chinese language and Asian inventory indices. China is the biggest purchaser of uncooked supplies and a provider of a variety of completed merchandise to the world commodity market.

In December 2021, the expansion of the buyer inflation index amounted to -0.3% (+1.5% in annual phrases).

The deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, together with the decline in shopper inflation, could adversely have an effect on the positions of the yuan, in addition to commodity currencies such because the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand {dollars}. To a higher extent, this is applicable to the Australian greenback, since China is Australia’s largest commerce and financial associate.

In accordance with the forecast, the buyer worth index is predicted to develop in January by +0.5% (+1.0% in annual phrases).

The expansion of the buyer inflation index will positively have an effect on the quotes of the yuan, in addition to commodity currencies. Nonetheless, information worse than anticipated and the relative decline within the CPI could negatively have an effect on them.

07:00 GBP Client Value Index. Core Client Value Index

Client Value Index (CPI) displays the dynamics of retail costs for a gaggle of products and providers included within the British shopper basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes lively motion of the pound within the overseas alternate market, in addition to the index of the London Inventory Trade FTSE100.

Within the earlier reporting month (December), shopper inflation elevated by +0.5% (+5.4% in annual phrases). The info suggests rising inflationary pressures, which is more likely to help the pound. A worth of the indicator under the forecast/earlier worth may provoke a weakening of the pound, as low inflation will power the Financial institution of England to keep up a straightforward financial coverage. Forecast for January: -0.2% (+5.4% in annual phrases).

Core Client Value Index (Core CPI) is revealed by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics and determines the change in costs of a specific basket of products and providers (excluding meals and vitality) over a given interval. It’s a key indicator for assessing inflation and altering shopper preferences. A constructive end result strengthens the GBP, a unfavorable end result weakens it.

In December, Core CPI (in annual phrases) elevated by +4.2%. It’s seemingly that the publication of the indicator could have a constructive affect on the pound within the quick time period if its worth is increased than the forecast and former values. The indicator studying under the forecast and/or earlier values ​​could provoke a weakening of the pound. Forecast for January: +4.3%.

13:30 USD Retail gross sales. Retail management group

This report (Retail Gross sales) displays the whole gross sales of outlets of all sizes and kinds. The change in retail gross sales is the primary indicator of shopper spending. The report is a number one indicator and information could also be closely revised sooner or later. A excessive end result strengthens the US greenback, a low end result weakens it. A relative lower within the indicator could have a short-term unfavorable affect on the greenback, and a rise within the indicator could have a constructive impact on the USD. Within the earlier month (December), the worth of the indicator was -1.9%% (after a rise of +0.2% in November, +1.8% in October, +0.8% in September, +0.9% in August ), which signifies the nonetheless unstable enchancment on this sector of the American financial system after the partial lifting of strict quarantine restrictive measures in quite a lot of states. Forecast for January: +1.6%.

Retail gross sales is the primary indicator of shopper spending within the US, displaying the change in retail gross sales. The Retail Reference Group measures quantity throughout all the retail trade and is used to calculate worth indices for many merchandise. A excessive end result strengthens the US greenback, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the greenback. A slight improve in indicators is unlikely to speed up the expansion of the greenback. Knowledge worse than the earlier interval (-3.1% in December, -0.1% in November, +1.6% in October, +0.5% in September, +2.6% in August) could negatively have an effect on greenback within the quick time period. Forecast for January: +0.1%.

13:30 CAD Core Client Value Index in Canada

Core Client Value Index (Core CPI) from the Financial institution of Canada displays the dynamics of retail costs of the corresponding basket of products and providers (excluding fruits, greens, gasoline, gasoline oil, pure gasoline, mortgage curiosity, intercity transportation and tobacco merchandise). The inflation goal for the Financial institution of Canada is within the vary of 1%-3%. The rising CPI is a harbinger of a charge hike and constructive for the CAD. Core Client Value Index rose in December 2021 by 0.6% (+4.0% in annual phrases). If the anticipated information seems to be worse than the earlier values, it will negatively have an effect on the CAD. Knowledge higher than earlier values ​​will strengthen the Canadian greenback. Forecast for January: +4.6% (in annual phrases).

19:00 USD Minutes of the current Federal Open Market Committee assembly

The publication of the minutes is extraordinarily vital for figuring out the course of the present coverage of the Fed and the prospects for elevating rates of interest within the US. The volatility of buying and selling in monetary markets through the publication of the minutes normally will increase, because the textual content typically comprises both adjustments or clarifying particulars relating to the outcomes of the final FOMC assembly of the Fed.

Following the outcomes of the January assembly, the Fed leaders determined to speed up the discount in asset purchases with a view to full the QE program in March 2022 and start elevating rates of interest. The Fed officers plan to lift rates of interest 3 times in 2022.

The delicate tone of the minutes could have a constructive affect on inventory indices and negatively on the US greenback. Powerful rhetoric of the Fed’s leaders relating to the prospects for financial coverage will push the greenback to additional development.

Thursday, February 17

00:30 AUD Employment charge. Unemployment charge

The employment charge displays the month-to-month change within the variety of employed Australians. The expansion of the indicator has a constructive affect on shopper spending, which stimulates financial development. A excessive studying is constructive for the AUD, whereas a low studying is unfavorable. Forecast: in January, the variety of employed Australian residents decreased by -15,000 (after a rise of +366,100 in November, a fall of -46,300 in October, -138,000 in September, -146,300 in August, a rise of +2,200 in July, +29,100 in June, +115200 in Might, falling by -30,600 in April, by -264,100 in Might 2020 and rising by +29,100 in January 2021).

On the similar time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment charge – an indicator that assesses the ratio of the unemployed inhabitants to the whole variety of able-bodied residents. The expansion of the indicator signifies the weak point of the labor market, which results in a weakening of the nationwide financial system. The lower within the indicator is a constructive issue for the AUD. Forecast: Unemployment in Australia was at 4.2% in January (towards 4.2% in December, 4.6% in November, 5.2% in October, 4.6% in September, 4.5% in August , 4.6% in July, 4.9% in June, 5.1% in Might, 5.5% in April, 6.6% in December, 6.8% in November, 7.0% in October, 6.9% in September, 6.8% in August, 7.5% in July, 7.4% in June, 5.2% in March, 5.1% in February), though it’s approaching pre-coronavirus ranges ranges.

The RBA officers have repeatedly said that along with the state of affairs in worldwide commerce, the Australian financial system and the central financial institution’s financial coverage plans are affected by indicators of the extent of money owed and family spending, development in wages of staff, in addition to the state of the nation’s labor market. In accordance with the RBA administration, an unemployment charge of 4.5% or decrease is required to extend wages and speed up inflation to the goal vary.

The AUD is unlikely to react positively to the publication of knowledge from the nation’s labor market. If the values ​​of the symptoms grow to be worse than the forecast, the Australian greenback could decline considerably within the quick time period. Higher-than-expected information will strengthen the AUD within the quick time period.

Friday, February 18

13:30 CAD Retail Gross sales Index

Retail Gross sales Index is revealed month-to-month by Statistics Canada and measures complete retail gross sales. The index is usually thought-about an indicator of shopper confidence and displays the state of the retail sector within the quick time period. The expansion of the index is normally a constructive issue for the CAD; a lower within the indicator will negatively have an effect on the CAD. The earlier worth of the index (for November) was +0.7% after rising by +1.5% in October, declining by -0.6% in October and rising by +1.8% in August. If the information for December is weaker than the forecast and / or the earlier worth, the CAD could drop sharply within the quick time period. Forecast: +1.2%.

Value chart of EURUSD in actual time mode

The content material of this text displays the writer’s opinion and doesn’t essentially replicate the official place of LiteFinance. The fabric revealed on this web page is supplied for informational functions solely and shouldn’t be thought-about as the availability of funding recommendation for the needs of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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