Will ECB hike charges by 75 bps or nah?
Let’s try EUR/USD’s 1-hour downtrend forward of the central financial institution occasion!
Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out a new development forming after GBP/AUD broke above a key resistance. Be sure you try if it’s nonetheless a sound play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:
Recent Market Headlines & Financial Information:
BOC raised charges by 75 bps to three.25%, the very best borrowing charge since 2008
Canada’s Ivey August PMI jumps to 60.9, above July’s 49.6
EIA: U.S. crude output and petroleum demand to rise in 2022
RICS: Purchaser demand drops however report low inventory props up home value development
Australia’s commerce surplus plummets from report highs as exports shrink
RBA Gov. Lowe: “…the case for a slower tempo of enhance in rates of interest turns into stronger as the extent of the money charge rises”
NZ manufacturing gross sales down by 3.8% vs. 0.9% uptick in Q1
ECB’s coverage choice at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. preliminary jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
ECB’s presser at 12:45 pm GMT
Fed Chairman Powell to offer a speech at 1:10 pm GMT
U.S. crude oil inventories at 3:00 pm GMT
China’s CPI and PPI studies at 1:30 am GMT (Sept 9)
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What to Watch: EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been making decrease highs and decrease lows since late August when the pair noticed a big-ish downswing.
The pair is now buying and selling nearer to parity, which strains up with a descending channel resistance on the 1-hour timeframe.
Stochastic additionally favors a bearish transfer after juuuust leaving the overbought territory.
Recall that the euro discovered some help towards the greenback earlier this week because of decrease Treasury yields and a little bit of profit-taking from USD energy.
However the eurozone remains to be poppin’ weak PMIs and is headed for an vitality disaster.
Right now’s ECB occasion may shake issues up for EUR/USD’s downtrend.
Markets anticipate ECB President Lagarde and her crew to boost their rates of interest by at 75 foundation factors to fight excessive inflation.
Not all analysts are satisfied, although. Some consider that decrease development prospects would result in some restraint from some ECB members.
If markets aren’t satisfied that the ECB’s plans would assist inflation, or if right now’s Powell speech evokes one other spherical of USD shopping for, then EUR/USD may lengthen its downtrend.
EUR/USD may head in direction of .9930 and even September’s lows close to .9880 earlier than EUR patrons present up.
In the meantime, prolonged risk-taking and USD-selling may push EUR/USD above its channel resistance.
A transparent break above parity may enhance EUR/USD to areas of curiosity like 1.0065 or 1.0125.